Analysis of Tourism Source Markets and Market Dynamics in the Regional Corridor of Mpumalanga, Limpopo, Eswatini, and Mozambique

Executive Summary

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The regional tourism corridor encompassing the South African provinces of Mpumalanga and Limpopo, together with the countries of Eswatini and Mozambique, is distinguished by a unique and robust market dynamic. The most significant finding is the overwhelming predominance of intra-regional visitor flows, with the countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) forming the backbone of the sector. South Africa, in particular, acts as the primary source of visitors for its neighbors, Mozambique and Eswatini, which underscores a fundamental economic and geographical interdependence.

Although long-haul markets from Europe, the Americas, and Asia represent a smaller volume of arrivals, they are a vital, high-value segment. The post-pandemic recovery trajectory is solid throughout the corridor, with notable annual growth. For example, South Africa registered a 5.1% growth in tourist arrivals in 2024 compared to the previous year. However, the total visitor numbers remain below pre-2019 levels, indicating a continuous margin for strategic expansion.

The future success of this tourism corridor depends on a coordinated and multifaceted strategy. It is imperative to formalize and optimize existing connectivity through initiatives such as the “Triland” project between South Africa, Eswatini, and Mozambique.¹ A two-pronged marketing approach is required: on one hand, strengthening the high-volume regional market focused on leisure and visiting friends and relatives (VFR), and on the other, aggressively attracting high-value visitors from long-haul markets. Improving infrastructure, simplifying visa policies, and developing experiential tourism offerings are crucial steps to consolidate this corridor as a world-class destination.

 

Introduction: An Integrated Corridor, Not Disparate Destinations

 

 

2.1. Defining the Tourism Ecosystem

 

This report addresses the tourism dynamics of Mpumalanga, Limpopo, Eswatini, and Mozambique not as isolated entities, but as a single, vast, and interdependent economic corridor. The South African provinces of Mpumalanga and Limpopo serve as primary entry points and anchors, hosting world-renowned attractions like the Kruger National Park. Visitor travel patterns reveal a fluid movement between these regions, which creates a complex tourism ecosystem. For example, Mozambique’s Limpopo National Park joins South Africa’s Kruger National Park to form the Great Limpopo Transfrontier Area, a geographical testament to their interconnectedness.² Similarly, Eswatini is strategically situated between South Africa and Mozambique, and its border posts are high-traffic routes that connect travelers to the South African interior and the coasts of Mozambique.⁴

 

2.2. Objectives and Methodology of the Report

 

The goal of this analysis is to go beyond a simple list of the main countries of origin for visitors. The report synthesizes quantitative data from official sources such as Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), South Africa Tourism, and the National Institute of Statistics (INE) of Mozambique, with qualitative information on traveler motivations, spending, emerging trends, and macroeconomic challenges. This holistic approach provides strategic intelligence for policymakers, investors, and industry stakeholders, allowing them to understand the underlying forces that shape this regional market.

 

The Foundational Pillar: The Predominance of Intra-regional Travel

 

 

3.1. The Scale of SADC Arrivals: A Quantitative Assessment

 

The most outstanding feature of the regional tourism market is the overwhelming contribution of SADC nations. In 2024, African tourists accounted for 76% of total arrivals to South Africa.⁵ A more detailed analysis reveals that a significant portion of this volume comes from neighboring countries: Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Lesotho, and Eswatini collectively accounted for 80.2% of all arrivals from Africa during the fourth quarter of 2024 in South Africa.⁶

This market dynamic is reciprocal. South Africa is the main source market for Eswatini, with 163,685 arrivals in 2022, far ahead of any other country.⁷ Similarly, in Mozambique, South Africa is the main country of origin, representing 33.5% of total visitors.⁸ This pattern is not a mere statistical coincidence but the manifestation of a deeply interconnected tourism ecosystem, where the economic health of tourism in one country directly affects its neighbors. The success of the tourist season in Mpumalanga or Limpopo, for example, directly translates into an increase in visitors to adjacent countries as travelers extend their itineraries. This confirms that the formalization and optimization of existing travel flows through the “Triland” initiative is a strategic necessity for the entire region to benefit from the tourism momentum.¹

 

3.2. Analysis of the Regional Traveler Profile: Purpose and Spending

 

Data indicates that a significant proportion of trips within the region are for leisure purposes, but also for visiting friends and relatives (VFR). In South Africa, most SADC travelers make short visits, with 20% of stays being two to three days.¹⁰ In Mozambique, visiting friends and relatives accounts for 17% of total tourist arrivals.⁹ Travelers from Mozambique who visit South Africa are identified as a key segment for shopping, with an average expenditure of 3,900 South African rands (ZAR) per person.¹¹

This travel behavior creates a two-speed economic model: volume versus value. Although African tourists generate the largest total expenditure in Mozambique (56.9%), this is due to their large volume, not high individual spending.⁹ This contrasts with long-haul travelers, who, although fewer in number, tend to have a substantially higher average per capita expenditure. This distinction necessitates a two-pronged market strategy: one that focuses on improving efficiency and accessibility for the high-volume, cost-conscious regional traveler, and another that develops and promotes unique, high-value experiences for the long-haul traveler with greater purchasing power.

 

Detailed Analysis by Key Location

 

 

4.1. Mpumalanga and Limpopo: Anchors of the Corridor

 

The South African provinces of Mpumalanga and Limpopo are the main entry points of the corridor. Mpumalanga ranked third in international tourist arrivals to South Africa in 2021, with a 23.2% share.¹² Limpopo, for its part, demonstrated its resilience by recording the second-highest number of domestic overnight trips in the third quarter of 2024, reaching 2.1 million trips with a spend of 5.7 billion ZAR.¹³

The main attraction for these provinces is safari tourism, centered on the world-famous Kruger National Park.¹⁴ However, the region’s appeal extends to its natural wonders like the Blyde River Canyon, the Panorama Route, and cultural and historical sites like Pilgrim’s Rest and the Ndebele Villages.¹⁴ This set of attractions functions as a funnel: visitors, initially drawn by the famous wildlife reserves, often extend their trips to neighboring regions. The Great Limpopo Transfrontier Park, which connects Kruger Park with Limpopo National Park in Mozambique ², and the significant traffic at border crossings like Lebombo and Oshoek ¹⁷, are indicators of this dynamic. This phenomenon highlights that tourism in Eswatini and Mozambique benefits directly from operations in Mpumalanga and Limpopo. Therefore, a combined marketing strategy that promotes a “Kruger-Eswatini-Mozambique” route could simplify itinerary planning for international visitors and maximize the economic impact across the entire region.

 

4.2. Eswatini: A Niche within the Circuit

 

Eswatini’s tourism sector is heavily dependent on travelers from its neighbors, with South Africa as its main source market with 163,685 arrivals and Mozambique with 26,061 in 2022.⁷ Most travelers who visit Eswatini do so by road, as part of a longer trip to South Africa or Mozambique.⁴

Eswatini offers specialized experiences that complement traditional safari, such as rhino conservation, bike safaris, and cultural experiences.⁴ Eswatini’s position is that of a valuable and unique stopover or complementary destination, rather than a primary, high-volume destination. Its strength lies not in a single large-scale attraction, but in a combination of experiences that enrich a longer regional journey. Its smaller size allows for more intimate and authentic experiences, which aligns with modern tourism trends of seeking meaningful and profound experiences.¹⁹ Therefore, Eswatini should focus its marketing on its unique selling points, such as its intimate safaris, cultural authenticity, and natural tranquility, positioning itself as a must-see detour for travelers already in the region.

 

4.3. Mozambique: The High-Potential Coastal Market

 

In 2023, Mozambique received 1.15 million foreign visitors.⁸ The main countries of origin are South Africa, which accounts for 33.5% of the total, followed by Portugal (10.3%), the United Kingdom, and the United States.⁸ Despite the growth, the sector is still in recovery, with 2023 visitor numbers 43% below 2019 levels.⁸

The profile of the Mozambican visitor is uniquely segmented. The influx of South African visitors is a geographical and economic reality, but the strong presence of markets like Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States reflects historical and business ties. This duality provides both a stable market (the regional one) and high-revenue potential (the long-haul one).⁹ For the regional segment, the main purpose of travel is leisure (65.5%), although visiting friends and relatives and business travel are also significant.⁹ A successful strategy for the country must address both segments: for regional travelers, the key is accessibility and leisure coastal tourism, while for the long-haul market, the focus should be on high-end experiences, such as luxury lodges and ecotourism, which capitalize on natural beauty and historical ties.

 

Post-Pandemic Recovery and Changing Visitor Preferences

 

 

5.1. A Comparative Analysis of Recovery Trajectories

 

Tourism recovery in the region has been robust, but uneven. South Africa, which registered 8.9 million tourist arrivals in 2024, showed an impressive 5.1% increase compared to the previous year, although it is still 12.8% below its 2019 levels.⁵ Mozambique, for its part, attracted 1.15 million visitors in 2023, a figure that, while encouraging, represents a 43% drop compared to the 2,032,923 arrivals in 2019.⁸ Below is a comparison of key recovery data:

This table demonstrates that while the sector is on a path of growth, full recovery to pre-pandemic volumes is ongoing and has not yet been completed.

 

5.2. Emerging Trends and the New Traveler Experience

 

Forward-looking research for 2025 and beyond reveals a shift in traveler motivations. The rise of concepts like glamping and “proximity escapes” caters to the desire of domestic travelers to enjoy nature in a convenient and comfortable way, without long trips.²⁰ Globally, trends are leaning towards wellness tourism, heritage-themed accommodations, and the growing role of digital platforms and artificial intelligence (AI) in travel planning.¹⁹

This indicates that the modern traveler not only seeks to see a destination but to live an experience that is authentic, personalized, and worthy of being shared on social media. The integration of AI for itinerary planning and the demand for sustainability are not fleeting trends but fundamental expectations of this new market segment.¹⁹ To remain competitive, the corridor must strategically invest in its digital presence and diversify its offerings beyond traditional safaris. The development of unique experiences and the improvement of digital tools for booking and travel information are crucial to attract and retain these new segments.

 

Critical Challenges and Strategic Considerations

 

 

6.1. Political and Governance Obstacles: The Causal Link to Growth

 

Policy decisions have a direct and dramatic impact on tourism growth. The visa waiver for Ghana resulted in a notable 149% increase in tourist arrivals from that country in 2024.⁵ In contrast, delays in visa processing contributed to a 5.3% decrease in arrivals from India.⁵ The fluctuation in the implementation of the Electronic Travel Authorization (ETA) in Mozambique also illustrates how regulatory uncertainty can affect traveler confidence.²¹ This demonstrates that a strategic tourism policy must be deeply integrated with government governance and diplomatic relations. Traveler-friendly decisions can act as growth multipliers, while bureaucracy can significantly inhibit market potential.

The audit of the Mpumalanga Tourism and Parks Agency, which received a qualified opinion in its 2023 report, raises questions about governance and transparency.²² The lack of effective administration and clear accountability can erode stakeholder trust, making it difficult to attract private investment for tourism projects.

 

6.2. Underlying Risks: Security and Infrastructure

 

It is crucial to recognize the security and infrastructure challenges in the corridor. In Mozambique, travel warnings due to crime and terrorism in certain provinces, such as Cabo Delgado, can create a perception of risk that deters high-value travelers, even though the incidents are geographically limited.²³ Furthermore, road conditions can be hazardous, with traffic, lack of lighting, and the presence of stray livestock, which affects the overall traveler experience.²³

These second-order risks can undermine even the most sophisticated marketing campaigns. Effective management of these challenges, through transparent governance and investment in risk mitigation and security, is as vital as the marketing itself. Public-private sector collaboration, as evidenced in infrastructure projects, is a positive step to address these concerns and build investor and traveler confidence.²⁵

 

Strategic Recommendations for Growth and Sustainability

 

 

7.1. Foster Corridor-wide Collaboration

 

The formalization of tourism cooperation through a trilateral agreement that synchronizes visa policies and procedures at border crossings is recommended. Collaboration on joint digital marketing platforms and the development of integrated itineraries, such as the “Kruger-Eswatini-Mozambique” route, can maximize visitor flow and economic benefits for all three countries.

 

7.2. Diversify and Segment Marketing Strategies

 

A two-level approach to marketing is suggested:

• Regional Market: Maintain the focus on the leisure, shopping, and VFR segment. Digital campaigns and promotions for short, affordable stays should be optimized for this high-volume segment.

• Long-Haul Market: Target marketing campaigns at high-value travelers from Europe, the Americas, and Asia. This involves promoting exclusive experiences, such as luxury safaris, wellness tourism, immersive cultural experiences, and ecotourism products that align with the demands of the contemporary traveler. Improving direct air connectivity to these markets is a critical factor.

 

7.3. Develop Experiential Offerings and Infrastructure

 

To capitalize on emerging trends, investment in new tourism offerings that go beyond traditional safaris is recommended. The development of products like glamping and community-based cultural tourism can attract new segments of travelers. The adoption of advanced technologies, such as AI-powered travel planners, can improve the visitor experience. Furthermore, investment in infrastructure projects, like the “Universal Access Project” ²⁵, is crucial to improve accessibility and visitor confidence.

 

Conclusion

 

The Mpumalanga, Limpopo, Eswatini, and Mozambique corridor is a dynamic and resilient tourism ecosystem with immense untapped potential. The existing predominance of intra-regional travel provides a stable foundation and a volume of visitors that sustains the industry. However, full recovery and long-term sustainable growth will be achieved through a unified and coordinated strategy that leverages the geographical and economic interdependencies of the region. Through smart policy, strategic infrastructure investment, and transparent administration, the corridor can consolidate its position as a world-class destination that meets the needs of a diverse spectrum of global travelers.